The North Pacific Fisheries Commission (NPFC) is a relatively new Regional Fisheries Management Organization (RFMO) with the overarching objective of ensuring the long-term conservation and sustainable use of the fisheries resources in its Convention Area while protecting the marine ecosystems of the North Pacific Ocean.
Having participated in preparatory meetings before this RFMO was ratified in 2015 and chaired its Scientific Committee for the past five years, I have observed the NPFC’s Scientific Committee establish defensible processes for undertaking quantitative analyses, including stock assessments, and providing science-based advice to the Commission to achieve its overarching objective.
During the past decade, NPFC Members have collaborated on stock assessments of two priority species – Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) and chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) – and have been studying other NPFC priority species. The NPFC adopted an interim harvest control rule (HCR) for Pacific saury in 2024 based on preliminary simulation testing, while a full management strategy evaluation (MSE) is developed for that species.
The NPFC’s Scientific Committee has been learning about and building capacity to develop MSE for its priority species since 2019, when its Biological Reference Point/Harvest Control Rule/Management Strategy Evaluation Workshop was convened to consider potential directions on the application of biological reference points (BRPs), HCRs, and MSE for NPFC’s priority species. During that workshop, one invited expert described how conducting an MSE can be a lengthy process. Still, the lessons learned from conducting it for one species can be transferred to others, making future MSE processes more efficient. Another invited expert underscored the importance of improving communication for more effective MSE processes. Participants also noted that consideration could be given to the role of climate variability when providing scientific advice because MSE is a robust tool to evaluate the resilience of HCRs to different climate scenarios.
In 2021, the NPFC established a Small Working Group on MSE for Pacific Saury (SWG MSE PS) as a joint subsidiary body that included participation from its Scientific Committee, Technical and Compliance Committee, and Commission (joint SC-TCC-COM SWG MSE PS). The overall purpose of the SWG MSE PS is to provide a forum for consultation and cooperation among scientists, managers, stakeholders, and observers, akin to the science-management dialogue groups in use at other RFMOs. The SWG MSE PS’ functions include developing and submitting recommendations to the Commission on a draft interim HCR, draft management objectives, key sources of uncertainty, and, if feasible, candidate management procedures (MPs), as well as facilitating communications among commissioners, scientists, managers, stakeholders, and observers.
In anticipation of future participation of the NPFC’s Scientific Committee in MSE processes for priority species, the Scientific Committee has been exploring options to build capacity to undertake the technical analyses that underpin MSE. Recently, the Scientific Committee and the NPFC Secretariat accepted the offer from The Ocean Foundation and www.HarvestStrategies.org to organize an informal workshop on management strategy evaluation with the OpenMSE R package. The workshop side-event was led by Dr. Tom Carruthers and Dr. Adrian Hordyk of Blue Matter Science in December 2024 on the margins of the Scientific Committee’s ninth meeting. The first part of this workshop focused on introducing the philosophy, concepts, and terminology of MSE. The second part of the workshop was a demonstration (coding) of the technical components of MSE using the OpenMSE R package, including operating model specification, MP development and tuning, running the closed-loop calculations of an MSE, calculating performance metrics, presenting MSE performance outcomes and trade-offs, and developing exceptional circumstances protocols. Over 20 people from the NPFC’s Scientific Committee or Secretariat registered for this hybrid workshop.
Given the NPFC’s Resolution on Climate Change, which tasks its Scientific Committee with integrating analyses of climate change relevant to NPFC fisheries into its work plan, Dr. Carruthers was also invited to present tools for incorporating climate change considerations into scientific advice. His presentation suggested that it is unnecessary to know the exact type or level of forecasted impact to identify an MP that outperforms other MPs in terms of climate robustness. He also presented how the climate robustness of MPs can vary depending on their specification.
Drawing on NPFC Scientific Committee funds for capacity building, Dr. Libin Dai of China will spend a week in early 2025 working with those at Blue Matter Science in part to develop a stock assessment model for neon flying squid, learn more about applications of the openMSE R package for NPFC’s priority species, and learn about integrating climate information into a stock assessment framework and MSE for neon flying squid.
I am heartened to know that NPFC Members and observers recognize the importance and value of MSE in informing fisheries of priority species management, especially when considering MPs that are resilient to the impacts of climate change. This is also related to two key recommendations (3.2.2 and 4.5.4) of the 2022 NPFC performance review. The NPFC is actively building knowledge and capacity within its scientific and management communities to understand and undertake the analyses needed to inform MSE processes. To this end, The Pew Charitable Trusts and The Ocean Foundation are convening a side event during the ninth NPFC Commission meeting that will explore further opportunities for the NPFC to build its capacity. I look forward to a day in the near future when scientists can communicate and work effectively with managers and stakeholders to implement NPFC MPs that can meet multiple objectives of sustainable use.
Dr. Janelle Curtis is a Research Scientist at Fisheries and Oceans Canada. She has been chairing the NPFC’s Scientific Committee since April 2019.
Esta animación describe el funcionamiento interno de la evaluación de estrategias de gestión (MSE), lo que ayuda a desmitificar el enfoque e ilustra cómo las estrategias de captura basadas en MSE pueden ayudar a asegurar pesquerías saludables y rentables a largo plazo.
Esta animación presenta qué son las estrategias de captura y cómo se desarrollan para lograr una visión a largo plazo de una población de peces y las pesquerías que se dirigen a ella.
Here at www.HarvestStrategies.org, the New Year’s resolution is always to catalyze the development and adoption of robust management procedures (MPs) for fisheries around the world. 2024 saw impressive progress, with MP adoption for North Atlantic swordfish, Indian Ocean swordfish and skipjack, North Pacific saury, and Adriatic Sea anchovy and sardine. Notably, these are the first MPs for swordfish and forage fishes adopted by regional fisheries management organizations (RFMOs), marking a significant step forward in applying a broader ecosystem approach. These 5 adoptions brought the total number of MPs for internationally managed stocks to 15. If we make that kind of progress again this year, adding 5 more adoptions, we’ll have 20×25 – 20 total international MPs by 2025.
There are 11 stocks slated for MP adoption this year, so securing 5 is a realistic goal, regardless of the challenges of consensus-based management at the RFMOs. Here are the stocks we’re tracking this year in chronological order.
If we hit the 20×25 target, the number of international MPs will have doubled in two years — evidence of the tremendous progress in MP development. With even more internationally managed stocks slated for MP adoption in 2026, the tide is turning toward a future where MSE-tested MPs will bring a more transparent, predictable, and science-based approach to achieving long-term abundant and sustainable fisheries.
Needless to say, there’s a lot of work to be done this year. Please check back here regularly to see how 20×25 unfolds!
The ICCAT annual meeting wrapped up on Monday in Limassol, Cyprus. Management procedures (MPs) were the big winners of the meeting, with progress made on eight different stocks. This remarkable advancement affirmed ICCAT’s commitment to transitioning its management to MPs as a more science-based and transparent approach to achieving long-term sustainability for its $5.4 billion fisheries.
North Atlantic Swordfish: A Landmark Success
An MP was adopted for North Atlantic swordfish, marking ICCAT’s first MP for a non-tuna species. Twenty-five years ago, there was a boycott of North Atlantic swordfish, given its dire status. Today, the stock is fully recovered, and the new MP will lock in this abundance and ensure a vibrant fishery for years to come. The MP was also evaluated to ensure that it can be responsive to any negative impacts of climate change on swordfish abundance, ensuring a sustainable system even in a changing ocean.
The northern swordfish catch limit will increase by 12% next year, the first catch increase for swordfish since 2002. Importantly, the adopted MP is called “MCC,” which stands for “Mostly Constant Catch,” as it is designed to secure long-term stability in the fishery, which is good for business, both on fishing vessels and in seafood markets.
West Atlantic Skipjack: Significant Progress Despite Delay
While we had hoped an MP would be adopted for West Atlantic skipjack, ICCAT members decided that they needed a bit more information before selecting a specific MP. They, therefore, stopped just short of MP adoption, finalizing operational management objectives and giving clear guidance on how to put the finishing touches on the management strategy evaluation (MSE), the results of which will determine the MP to be adopted next November. This still remarks tremendous progress and is cause for celebration.
Forward Momentum for Other Important Stocks
ICCAT also agreed to interim management objectives for the other three tropical tunas – bigeye, yellowfin, and East Atlantic skipjack. The new measure contains important information to guide and reinvigorate the multispecies MSE underway for those stocks, calling for MP adoption in 2026. We note that the 50% probability of having each of the stocks not overfished and not subject to overfishing is a minimum standard for MP development, and we will work with ICCAT members to ensure that the likelihood is raised to at least 60% for the final MP. A coin flip’s chance of success is insufficient, especially given the number of livelihoods and coastal communities that depend on these stocks.
South Atlantic albacore and North and South Atlantic blue sharks round out the list of MP actions, with objectives agreed upon for the former and all three stocks added to ICCAT’s MSE workplan.
Charting a Sustainable Future
The outcomes of the Cyprus meeting reaffirm ICCAT’s leadership in global fisheries management. By adopting a new MP and providing guidance on MP development for 7 other stocks, ICCAT is charting a path toward more sustainable and resilient big fish fisheries. The Commission is well-positioned to secure the long-term health of these key resources and the communities that depend on them. The coming year will be pivotal as these initiatives take shape, and we at www.HarvestStrategies.org look forward to continuing to engage as a stakeholder in the process.
When I first delved into the world of harvest control rules and harvest strategies in 2011 during my time with WWF as their global tuna lead, I saw it as a critical opportunity to ensure sustainable fisheries. At the time, except for Southern Bluefin Tuna, none of the tuna RFMOs had established effective harvest strategies, despite the clear benefits they offered. It was a moment where the scientific community, NGOs, and some in the industry began to rally around this concept, recognizing that pre-agreed frameworks for managing fishing effort could mitigate the volatility and short-term pressures that often dominate RFMO negotiations.
A key challenge we encountered early on was the lack of understanding among stakeholders, particularly those outside the scientific realm. Harvest strategies were often perceived as a ‘black box’ solution—complex and intimidating. This is where capacity building became essential. Working on the Common Oceans Project, we hosted a series of workshops, using interactive tools to demystify harvest strategies and get participants actively involved in shaping their development. I remember one workshop vividly: participants were surprised to learn that there isn’t always a single “right” answer when mapping out a harvest strategy. Different components, such as reference points and harvest control rules, can be arranged in multiple ways, depending on the needs of specific fisheries. This flexibility is one of the greatest strengths of harvest strategies, allowing them to be tailored to the unique challenges each fishery faces.
While we’ve made significant progress—tuna RFMOs have adopted several harvest control rules in recent years—the true challenge lies ahead: effective implementation. In the Indian Ocean, for example, despite adopting harvest control rules for skipjack tuna, we’ve seen significant non-compliance with recommended catch limits. Moving forward, compliance isn’t just about enforcement. It’s about fostering goodwill, ensuring all stakeholders feel invested in the long-term goals of sustainable management, and developing fair allocation systems that work for everyone involved.
Monitoring and enforcement will also play a crucial role. The adoption of advanced technologies, like electronic monitoring systems and automated data analytics, will be essential to ensuring that harvest strategies work in practice. We’ve already seen fisheries adopt management procedures that integrate such tools, and it’s a model that will need to be expanded globally.
The journey of implementing harvest strategies over the past decade has been transformative. In 2014, I was thrilled to see mainstream media in the UK publish pieces on the need for harvest control rules and the European retailers demanding this—something unheard of when I began this work. Today, many of our GTA partners instantly understand the value of these strategies. This is a credit to all the capacity building that has happened. However, as we look ahead, ensuring robust compliance and continued capacity building will be critical to their long-term success.
At the Global Tuna Alliance (GTA), our global supply chain partners are deeply committed to pushing for progress in this area. Over the next five years, we will leverage our partnerships to advocate for the effective uptake and critical implementation of harvest strategies across all tuna RFMOs, ensuring that our tuna fisheries remain sustainable for future generations.
About the Author: With 20 years of experience in fisheries and marine conservation, Daniel Suddaby has a deep passion for the ocean, marine life, and sustainable fishing practices. He is an expert in tuna, advocacy, and sustainable market tools that drive change in fisheries and seafood supply chains. Prior to joining the GTA, Daniel founded and led the Tuna and Distant Water Fisheries Program at Ocean Outcomes, building effective relationships with longline tuna and supply chain companies to incentivize transformation through tools such as the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) Fishery Improvement Projects. Previously, Daniel spent six years as the Deputy Leader of the World Wild Fund for Nature’s (WWF) global fisheries initiative, leading global engagement in tuna fisheries and advocacy in all Regional Fisheries Management Organisations (RFMOs), and providing strategic direction to WWF International on seafood engagement. He also has experience as a Senior Fisheries Certification Manager for the MSC.